Analysis: How Wisconsin became a crucial swing state in the 2024 election (2024)

Voters in Wisconsin -- acritical swing stateahead of the 2024 presidential election -- may be among the most unpredictable in the nation.

Though former President Barack Obama carried the state in2008andagain in 2012, Wisconsin voters stunned pollsters by voting for Donald Trumpin 2016, marking the first time since 1984 that the state’s electoral votes went to a Republican. Then, in the 2020 election, the state’s voters chose a Democrat again -- Joe Biden.

Nonpartisan state Supreme Court elections have produced similar results, with a mix of conservative victories in2017and2019, and liberal victories in2018,2020and2023.

Recent polling shows the race between Trump and Bidenis very closein Wisconsin. A win in Wisconsin could be a big step to winning the electionfor either Biden or Trump.

I am ascholar of Wisconsin historyand politics. Overall, statewide elections for governor, senator and Supreme Court justice have resulted in conservative and liberal victories in almost equal numbers between 2008 and 2022. Understanding Wisconsin’s recent, complicated political history and demographics gives some important context on how it became a key swing state this year.

Republicans dominate

until the late 1950s

In the early 20th century, the Republican Party dominated Wisconsin, winning everystatewide electionbetween 1894 and 1930 and controlling large majorities in the Legislature.

In the late 1940s, activists began rebuilding the moribund Democratic Party, which drew on two major areas of strength. The first was the industrial lakeshore regions of Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha counties, where the Democratic prospects were bolstered by labor unions and the strongsocialist tradition of Milwaukee.

The second major issue driving support for Democrats was Madison, the capital and home of UW-Madison. By the 1970s, Madison became known as one of the most liberal cities in the country.

After years of organizing, Wisconsin Democrats finally broke the Republican monopoly by electingWilliam Proxmireas senator in 1957 -- he was reelected multiple times and served until 1989 -- andGaylord Nelsonas governor in 1958.

For the rest of the 20th century, Democrats and Republicans remained evenly matched. Though both parties had support from particular populations -- Republicans were more popular in the suburbs, while Democrats held more sway in larger cities -- both parties campaigned across the state. And rural voters could be swayed by Democratic candidates’ agricultural policies or by Republicans’ appeal to conservative social values.

Smaller unions, bigger

farms hurt Democrats

At the same time, a shift toward corporate farming in Wisconsin -- meaning large-scale agriculture production traditionally managed by private companies -- reduced the overall number of small and medium-sizedfamily farms. This created a rural population not directly involved with agriculture and also diminished Democrats’ ability to appeal to nonurban voters.

Republicans capitalized on this trend by depicting Democrats asout-of-touch elitistswho ignored those who did not live in urban centers such as Madison or Milwaukee.

After Obama’s 2008 election, Republicans rode a backlash against this perceived hostility toward rural and small-town white voters, electing Scott Walker governor in 2010. Republicans also secured a lopsided state legislative majority throughpartisan redistrictingthat favored their party.

Rural-urban split

likely to continue

Trump’s 2016 campaign appealed to Wisconsin’s rural,overwhelmingly white voters, especially among those without a college degree.

Republican Mitt Romney carried this Wisconsin demographic 52% to Obama’s 47% in 2012.Trump carried it 56% to 38%in 2016.

In 62 out of 72 counties, Wisconsin’s Republican vote increased between 2012 and 2016, and the sharpest increase was in rural counties. The “reddening” of these counties was instrumental to Trump’s victory, and thistrend continued in 2020.

On the other hand, the most historically reliable Republican areas became noticeably less Republican. Republican turnout declined significantly in suburban Milwaukee counties, including Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha. Suburban voters were more skeptical of Trump than rural voters.

Heading into the 2024 Biden-Trump rematch, this rural-urban split will likely continue, and the election will certainly be close. Manysuburban Republicans remain unenthusedabout a third Trump candidacy, turned off by his legal woes and the chaos of Jan. 6.

Economy a top issue

for nearly half of state

Biden faces his own headwinds.

The most important issue for Wisconsinvoters is the economy. AMarch 2024 pollconducted by Emerson College and The Hill revealed that economic issues, including the costs of health care and housing, were the most important concerns for nearly half of Wisconsin voters.

Abortion, immigration

also matter to voters

If concerns over the economy boost Trump’s chances in the state, another potent issue provides a significant advantage for Biden.

About 80% ofsurveyed Wisconsin votersidentified abortion rights as “one of the most” or a “somewhat” important issue for them in May 2024.

Even some Republicansare uneasywith the fact that the three U.S. Supreme Court justices that Trump appointed were instrumental in overturning Roe v. Wade in June 2022. Trump’s continual shifting on abortion has not reassured some local Republican leaders who are worried about a pro-abortion rights surge toward Biden.

Additionally, Republican voters, despite the state’s distance from the southern border, expressconcern about immigration. Though this issue may help motivate Republicans otherwise not enthusiastic about Trump to vote for him, it is unlikely tosway many undecided or independent voters.

Biden needs young

voters to win again

The immigration issue is balanced by some Democrats’ concerns about preserving democracy itself and not electing Trump.

Both Democrats and Republicans have used apocalyptic language urging Wisconsin voters to “save America,” but Democrats can point to the Jan. 6, 2021, riot and Trump’s ongoing legal problems rather than Republicans’ more abstract concern about border security.

In the recent Emerson College survey,9.5% of Wisconsin respondentslisted “threats to democracy” as the No. 1 issue for voters.

Pro-Palestinianencampments at Wisconsinuniversities, as well as thepolice responseto the protests, might undermine Biden’s support among younger, more liberal voters.

A Biden victory in Wisconsin would require a big turnout in Madison and Milwaukee. But the youth vote in Wisconsin -- as well as elsewhere --may be diminishedbecause of concern over the Israel-Hamas conflict in the Gaza Strip, potentially costing Biden reelection. Strong turnout in rural counties, combined with continued anxiety over inflation, could very well make Wisconsin flip back to Trump.